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The Gambler, Part 1
You've go to know when to hold them,
Know when to fold them,
Know when to walk away,
Know when to run.
You never count your money
While you're sitting at the table,
There'll be time enough for counting
When the dealin's done.
With those stirring words by Kenny Rogers came my first exposure to country music. He had some hits in the 1970's, and a few made for TV movies, but he sort of faded away in the mid 80's. He got into owning & operating a restaurant chain, and last I heard, he was playing for crowds at Indian Casinos. Something that many of my favorite rock bands from the 70's & 80's have had to do. Journey, Heart, and many others.
Why have these groups that were mega-bands in their time resorted to playing in small and non-glamorous venues? Because their time has passed. They have been replaced by younger, (allegedly) more "hip" groups (determined of course by studio execs, marketing reps, and agents). Many of these musicians genuinely love to perform music, and still compose and play purely for the joy of playing…others simply are hooked on the allure of the spotlight, the addictive nature of fame and (unearned or undeserved?) glory? I saw a cartoon strip this week, concerning the rock group U2 – the last mega-group from the 1980's – where the question was asked "How long before people realize they sing only ONE song packaged and repacked over and over?"
Similarly, in professional sports, athletes try to compete past their prime, trying to extend their glory days, and in the end perform so poorly that it taints the memory of their Superbowl / World Series / NBA Championship days. Michael Jordan's 2nd NBA comeback had results disastrously different from his first un-retirement. Jerry Rice is being cut from team to team, and barely having passes thrown to him when is playing.
Or how many actors and actresses try to hang on to their youth, taking roles that are no longer naturally appropriate to their looks, their years, or their stature in the industry – worse, when they seek to act out in their own lives. How about the mother in her 30's/40's/50's who is dressing like her high school / college age daughter and acting just as silly? I won't mention anything about chasing her daughter's boyfriends…oops, I just did! Then there is the father who's last claim to fame was that "I played HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL", or trying to push their sons to excel at something just so the fathers can vicariously relive their long past glory days?
How much better to be the 1980's band THE POLICE, who in 1984 while playing at Shea Stadium in New York City, looked out the curtain before their concert and decided that "It doesn't get any better than this", and announced that they will finish their world tour while they were "on top of the world" and dissolve the band. They did, and each member of the trio went on to bigger and better things…following paths in which they each excelled and became master of his domain.
John Elway retired after 2 Superbowl wins, before he could get injured again or have a losing season. John Stockton knew when it was right to retire from the Utah Jazz. Wayne Gretsky knew when to skate off the ice and leave hockey.
Now I know that this seems a swansong, and that these individual had permanent retirements. But I don't want to dwell there. In all these fields, there may come a time when the singer, or the athlete, or the actress may be able to reinvent their career and make a comeback…either doing the same thing, but more effectively, showing a transformation, displaying new talents, a new facet. And their popularity renews. Paul McCartney and Jaclyn Smith are great examples of this, along with the afore-mentioned The Police. Danny Ainge managing the Celtics, and several of the sports commentators also.
Now how does this apply to you and me? In the short term, often times business is slow. Things don't sell. Or else everyone wants everything at a tremendous discount, almost at cost. Lately, many items do not sell on eBay unless extremely low. Now aside from the possibility of foreign products being dumped on the U.S. market, there is another factor here which simple as it is, is often overlooked. That is timing…as in time of the year.
The economy has been known to have seasonal swings (I know, DUH!). We know that it's best to buy Christmas presents in September or October, that the day after Thanksgiving kicks off the Christmas shopping season and prices go up, home sales rise in Spring and fall in Winter, and that gas prices rise considerably around Memorial day if not earlier, and start falling in September, once school has begun. What is NOT realized is that while the After-Christmas sales are great times for discounts, they often have an effect on prices in other areas beyond retail stores.
Many of my students have noticed that prices on eBay are way down right now. That is because while people are willing to pay decent money for Christmas gifts, AFTER is when every buyer seems to be psychologically wired to seek out deals. It is conditioned now. January is typically a poor month for sales. This is when it may be advisable to simply not place a listing rather than make a low sale.
Many things start happening at the end of January. Companies generally have figured their taxes for the last quarter, employees receive their W-2 tax forms so they can begin working on their returns, the President of the United States gives his State of the Union address. Wall Street and businesses react to the President's outlined priorities for the coming year. As individuals and companies realize that they have or will have money to spend, and optimism spreads, companies begin hiring employees and buying equipment, new goods are ordered and produced, people start looking to buy homes, prices will stabilize and rise somewhat, and more sales will pick up in both retail stores and online. Even on eBay.
The trick is having the wisdom and the confidence to be able to analyze the market for your good and sit tight if you cannot make a profit. Many do not have the discipline to do this. It just takes understanding that people are SO conditioned to after Christmas sales that they will NOT stay around to buy full price. And patience.
I can hear Kenny singing now…
Daniel P. Breitenstein, aka "The Professor"
© 2005 Daniel P. Breitenstein & Telcontar Enterpises, LLC
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Dan Breitenstein comes to Clickincome with a breadth of experience. Holding Bachelor's and Master's degrees in Political Science, he has taught various classes and guest lectured to college students on subjects such as Political and Cultural Geography, Constitutional Law, Western Christian Philosophy, and History: Ancient, Medieval, and American. He is an American Bar Association certified paralegal, who has worked in Intellectual Property Law firms, dealing with Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights. He has operated the sales division of an import company selling bedroom and dining room furniture on eBay and locally. Before coming to Clickincome, Dan was contracted by Microsoft, providing customer service and antivirus & malicious software technical support. His primary loves of study and hobbies are History, America's Founding Fathers, Law, World Events, Religion, Literature, and Philosophy -- basically anything Classical, including music and arts. He also has a passion for linguistics, and is most recently playing at studying Elvish (he is a HUGE J.R.R. Tolkien and The Lord Of The Rings fan). His current goals under development are to obtain a Ph.D. in Constitutional Law, and to write a historical fantasy novel set in the ancient world.
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